Polysilicon imports remain high

Recently, the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch released its polysilicon industry operation report in July and August this year. The report shows that from July to August this year, the price of polysilicon showed a trend of “first rise and then decline”, and the transaction price was moderately adjusted from 117,700 yuan/ton in early July to 11,411 yuan/ton in mid-July, an increase of 0.35%. Subsequently, the price slowly slid to 113.4 thousand yuan per ton at the end of August, a decrease of 0.61%, again approaching the historical low of 113,300 yuan per ton at the end of June. Faced with the dual pressure of import dumping suppression and weak demand and the declining price situation, some polysilicon manufacturing companies have already fallen into losses and are struggling.

It is understood that from July to August this year, China's polysilicon production was 28,100 tons, an increase of 20.1% year-on-year. The output in July was 14,200 tons, and the output in August was 13,900 tons. Among them, the output of Jiangsu Zhongneng accounted for 43.7% of the total output in July-August, still ranking first in domestic production, and TBEA and Sichuan Yongxiang ranked second and third respectively. From July to August, the output of the top three companies ranked by output was 64.9% of the total output. During the period from July to August, four companies (Sichuan, Dunan, Tianhong, and Yanyan) were normally overhauled and some of them resumed normal production at the end of August. Therefore, production was affected slightly by the period from July to August. At present, among the 15 enterprises in production, there are 10 companies with an operating rate of 100%, and the rest of the enterprises are maintaining normal production except for normal technological transformation or maintenance.

From the perspective of production status of all enterprises, currently there are 15 production enterprises (including normal maintenance companies) in the country, Jiangsu Zhongneng and Xinte Energy still maintain the overload operation, and Jiangsu Zhongneng has the capacity of 65,000 tons/year of improved Siemens overloaded operation. Monthly output of 6,000 tons (calculated on 31 days). TBEA maintains an overloaded production of about 2,000 tons per month, and its output still ranks second in the country. After expanding production in April, Sichuan Yongxiang was ranked third in domestic output in July-August.

The Luoyang silicon due to maintenance in August affected half a month of normal production, production has been reduced, so the July-August production ranking ranked fourth. Other polysilicon enterprises are maintaining their original production status except for the recovery of stable production after individual inspections.

According to the report, due to the impact of sudden imports of processing trade triggered by “Document No. 58” (“Application for Import Suspension of Polysilicon Processing Trade” for one year in a row, on the one hand, import prices continued to maintain low dumping, forcing domestic polysilicon prices to decline all the way, at prices When it is difficult to maintain the normal production and operation of enterprises, polysilicon companies have to reduce costs by increasing production and adjusting production indicators. Therefore, it is difficult to reduce domestic production. On the other hand, assault on imports caused a large backlog of stockpiles in the downstream, which directly led to a backlog of domestic polysilicon due to weak demand. According to statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, as of the end of August, domestic polysilicon companies had an internal inventory of about 9,000 tons. Compared with the inventory of 10,000 tons at the end of June, they digested about 1,000 tons of inventory during the period from July to August, so the price of polysilicon at the end of August is still lower than 6 The trough at the end of the month is slightly higher. In the face of the dual pressure of import dumping suppression and weak demand, and the declining price situation, leading companies such as Jiangsu Zhongneng, Xinjiang Special Change, and Xinjiang Daquan are also losing money.

Customs statistics show that in July China's polysilicon imports amounted to 9,664 tons, which was still close to 10,000 tons, mainly due to the fact that imports from Korea were still as high as 4,399 tons in the month, but the main reason for the slight decrease in imports of polysilicon in July was “58 The document “has really begun to play its role at the end of August, resulting in the reduction of imports of polysilicon by processing trade in July to 4,036 tons, accounting for 41.8% of total imports for the month and a decrease of 47.3% compared with the previous month. The volume of imports from the United States hit an all-time low of 569 tons, a sharp drop of 74.2% from the previous month, of which imports were 331 tons according to processing trade, a sharp decrease of 84.9% from the previous quarter, accounting for 58.3% of the total imports from the United States in the current month, compared to 1 to 7 The cumulative processing trade accounted for 93.7% of the month was still 35.4 percentage points lower.

According to the silicon branch, due to the influence of policy and downstream demand fluctuations, domestic polysilicon prices rose before and after July to August, until the end of August the price fell to the trough near the end of June. However, starting in September, benefiting from the continued implementation of “Document 58”, polysilicon imports can block at least 2,000 tons/month from the United States into the country. In addition, due to the traditional installation season in the third and fourth quarters, downstream demand will not shrink, and these import reductions will naturally shift to the demand for domestic polysilicon materials, so it is expected that polysilicon prices will rise rationally in September.