Regarding the news of 4G licensing, these two days have been overwhelming. I have tried to be concise and no longer refer to the notices and data of the parties. I only list the following points:
1. The licensing time did not deviate from the expectations of the outside world, but at the specific time, it was slow and urgent. This is the result of the game between the parties.
2. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not issue an LTE FDD license, it approved the trial network for telecommunications and China Unicom. This is equivalent to acquiescing to Telecom and China Unicom to run FDD, and the enthusiasm of the two TD-LTE networks will be further reduced. Even in the future, in the "hybrid networking" of China Telecom and China Unicom, the proportion of TD-LTE will never exceed 1/3, and may even be used only for "crossing" to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
3. Under the influence of China Unicom and China Telecom, China Mobile may also apply to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for LTE FDD hybrid networking.
4. At least in the first half of 2014, China Unicom's main strength lies in upgrading 3G networks. 4G is limited in scale and more than done.
5. The most uncomfortable in the short term is telecommunications. The judgment of the FDD LTE licensing time will determine the final tactical play of telecommunications, but the general coverage with FDD LTE will not change the basic direction of TD-LTE supplement.
6. In the short-term, China Mobile seems to be the most beneficial (at the same time obtaining TD-LTE licenses and fixed-line licenses), but as the most powerful operator at present, in order to balance the market structure, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will inevitably introduce more asymmetric control policies (such as adjustment network). Inter-settlement, portability, etc.), so the situation is still balanced in the long run, and even mobile is more disadvantageous.
7. Because of the asymmetric Internet-to-internet settlement policy, the faster the development of China Mobile 4G, the greater the pressure on settlement between networks.
8. Which support policies will be issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for TD-LTE, and which asymmetric control policies will be introduced (or adjusted) by mobile, will become a game focus for some time to come.
9. Due to the decline in frequency coverage and penetration capability, 4G will increase the demand for base stations by operators, and the “neighborhood†pressure faced by operators will be further expanded.
10. In order to get rid of the pressure of policy and public opinion and respond to the new competitive situation, in 2014, China Mobile is likely to abandon the performance of the company in recent years (such as the parent company to replace the listed company to bear the cost of TD-SCDMA network construction), and passed Give up some short-term profits in exchange for the development of long-term strategic business. From the long-term (2-3 years later), it is good, from the short-term (6 months to 1 year), it will become a big negative.
11. After 4G licensing, China has become the most complex communications market in the world. Simultaneous mobile communication networks include GSM (2G, 2 networks), CDMA (2G), TD-SCDMA (3G), WCDMA (3G), EVDO (3G), TD-LTE (4G, 3 networks), LTE FDD (4G, 2 "test networks"), and Wifi (hotspot coverage), PHS (delayed completion of retreat), CDMA450 (partially remote areas), GSMA (railway communication), Mcwill (partial private network). For communication to the general public only, 11 networks of 7 standards, plus Wifi and fixed communication, constitute three large networks.
12. In a complex network environment, operators' demand for multi-standard support (and demand for support frequency) has increased the squeeze on weak chip makers. The biggest beneficiary is Qualcomm (this is also the current time of the NDRC). This is an important reason for v. Qualcomm's monopoly. This has a huge impact on the early domestic industry chain that actively participated in TDD research and development.
13. The current opportunity for these manufacturers is that in order to make a large-scale as soon as possible, in 2014, Mobile will fully promote the thousand-yuan 4G mobile phone, and Telecom Unicom may also follow up, and the mobile phone at this price does not need full-standard full-frequency support.
14. The operator's traffic tariffs have further declined. At the same time, operators and Internet companies have jointly provided “directed traffic packets†and “directed traffic reductions†(examples, previous users using traffic to avoid traffic, Ali pay orders) will become a new trend.
15. The private capital virtual operators will actively strive for 4G resources, and some enterprises are likely to successfully obtain relevant resources (you know), which will lead to complex changes in the market.
16. Mifi will become a dark horse and is expected to create a large number of new application scenarios.
17. Regardless of how the operator plays, the biggest winner is the Internet company. The faster the carrier network is, the stronger the substitution effect of the OTT service on its traditional business.
18. Finally, the long-term situation can not only focus on 4G licensing, more policies will continue to become the new industry source: asymmetric control, private capital entry, LTE FDD license issuance, private capital further entry, radio and television network admission or even new one Round of telecom restructuring, even opening up the operator's shareholding structure, and implementing the separation of the network industry, etc...
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