Recently, the Taiwan media’s “Business Times†published an editorial pointing out that, according to statistical data released by the island’s financial department, in May Taiwan’s import and export amounts were 26.6 billion and 27.8 billion U.S. dollars respectively, and double hit a single monthly new high; The export value was US$120.2 billion and US$128.9 billion, which was also the same period of the previous year. In fact, the global economy gradually recovered last year. Last year, Taiwan’s annual exports reached US$274.6 billion, which has hit a record high. It is clear that Taiwan’s overall export momentum has not only completely recovered from the financial tsunami, but also exceeded the export performance before the financial tsunami. The performance so far this year has also been encouraging.
Continuing last year’s strong export trend, in addition to the unstable export value in Taiwan in January and February this year due to the Chinese Lunar New Year, three consecutive months of export revenue in March, April and May hit new highs, and each month is 27 billion yuan. Above the dollar, it does make many experts eye-popping.
Because after March there have been many incidents that may have caused Taiwan's exports to slump, including the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11th. Many Taiwanese electronics companies have experienced a broken chain crisis. Under certain parts and components, they may not ship as expected. Moreover, since the second half of last year, the NT has continued to appreciate, and many technocrats have repeatedly urged the central bank not to allow the NT to appreciate. Otherwise, Taiwan’s “Maoshan Taoist†(Gross Margin 3 to 4) technology-generation industry will face Survival crisis.
Despite this unfavorable export situation, it is surprising that Taiwan’s exports have reached new highs.
The analysis of Lin Lizhen, the top finance minister of Taiwan, also points to an increase in international demand. She said that the growth momentum of emerging Asian economies is strong, coupled with the demand for tablet computers and smart phones in Europe and the United States, so the base metals and their products, information and communication products, and machinery export volumes have set a new monthly high. In terms of differences in export, from January to May, Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN increased by 29.9%, and exports to the United States increased by 28.3%, which was a new high in the same period and increased by 17.3% against Europe.
Although exports are bright in the first half of this year, it is worth noting further observations as to whether they can maintain high-growth exports in the second half of the year. If we look at the changes in the global economic environment that are currently known, we cannot be optimistic.
First of all, Taiwan’s most competitive foundry leader, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.’s chairman Zhang Zhongmou, recently vomited. Recently, he told a shareholders’ meeting that in recent 9 months, the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 10%. Exporters; For TSMC, a 1% increase in the value of the new Taiwan dollar will affect TSMC’s operating profit margin by 0.4%. Therefore, a 10% appreciation of the NTD in this nine-month period is equivalent to reducing the operating profit rate of TSMC by 4%.
Zhang Zhongmou added that South Korea’s support for semiconductors can be viewed in terms of exchange rate changes. In the past year, the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar has changed greatly, which is extremely detrimental to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and other Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers. However, the Korean exchange rate is relatively stable, and it is relatively stable for Korean semiconductor factories such as Samsung. Relatively favorable. If TSMC feels that export pressure is high, the pressure on other electronics exporters with low gross margins is even less.
Judging from the major export goods, under the electronic products, the export amount for May was US$7.2 billion, which was lower than the US$7.3 billion in April. This reflects the dilemma of technology manufacturers. Moreover, during the peak season of the shareholders’ meeting in the past few days, a number of technology leaders, including Acer, UMC, MediaTek, etc., have issued a conservative message to the outlook for the second half of the year, showing even more that Taiwan’s exports of electronic products seem to have peaked this year.
Second, since Taiwan’s exports to the mainland and Hong Kong account for 45% of total exports, the mainland’s economic growth has the greatest impact on Taiwan. The tightening policy of the mainland this year has affected Taiwan’s exports to the mainland.
In addition, as mentioned above, due to the increase in global demand, in the first half of this year, although many unfavorable factors existed, Taiwan's export trade still performed well, but this is very likely to be a tough end. The original estimated global economic recovery appears to be interrupted, and the chance of a global recession in the second half of the year has greatly increased.
If the economic growth of both Europe and the United States and emerging countries declines, Taiwan’s exports will be hit hard and will further depress Taiwan’s economic growth. At this time, the opening of individual tourist visits to Taiwan by mainland tourists may be able to make up for some of the export growth gaps by increasing domestic demand. Looking at the overall environment, it is not only the introduction and expansion of land passengers. In the future, the tourism industry will play a more important role in promoting Taiwan’s economic growth.
Continuing last year’s strong export trend, in addition to the unstable export value in Taiwan in January and February this year due to the Chinese Lunar New Year, three consecutive months of export revenue in March, April and May hit new highs, and each month is 27 billion yuan. Above the dollar, it does make many experts eye-popping.
Because after March there have been many incidents that may have caused Taiwan's exports to slump, including the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11th. Many Taiwanese electronics companies have experienced a broken chain crisis. Under certain parts and components, they may not ship as expected. Moreover, since the second half of last year, the NT has continued to appreciate, and many technocrats have repeatedly urged the central bank not to allow the NT to appreciate. Otherwise, Taiwan’s “Maoshan Taoist†(Gross Margin 3 to 4) technology-generation industry will face Survival crisis.
Despite this unfavorable export situation, it is surprising that Taiwan’s exports have reached new highs.
The analysis of Lin Lizhen, the top finance minister of Taiwan, also points to an increase in international demand. She said that the growth momentum of emerging Asian economies is strong, coupled with the demand for tablet computers and smart phones in Europe and the United States, so the base metals and their products, information and communication products, and machinery export volumes have set a new monthly high. In terms of differences in export, from January to May, Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN increased by 29.9%, and exports to the United States increased by 28.3%, which was a new high in the same period and increased by 17.3% against Europe.
Although exports are bright in the first half of this year, it is worth noting further observations as to whether they can maintain high-growth exports in the second half of the year. If we look at the changes in the global economic environment that are currently known, we cannot be optimistic.
First of all, Taiwan’s most competitive foundry leader, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.’s chairman Zhang Zhongmou, recently vomited. Recently, he told a shareholders’ meeting that in recent 9 months, the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 10%. Exporters; For TSMC, a 1% increase in the value of the new Taiwan dollar will affect TSMC’s operating profit margin by 0.4%. Therefore, a 10% appreciation of the NTD in this nine-month period is equivalent to reducing the operating profit rate of TSMC by 4%.
Zhang Zhongmou added that South Korea’s support for semiconductors can be viewed in terms of exchange rate changes. In the past year, the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar has changed greatly, which is extremely detrimental to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and other Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers. However, the Korean exchange rate is relatively stable, and it is relatively stable for Korean semiconductor factories such as Samsung. Relatively favorable. If TSMC feels that export pressure is high, the pressure on other electronics exporters with low gross margins is even less.
Judging from the major export goods, under the electronic products, the export amount for May was US$7.2 billion, which was lower than the US$7.3 billion in April. This reflects the dilemma of technology manufacturers. Moreover, during the peak season of the shareholders’ meeting in the past few days, a number of technology leaders, including Acer, UMC, MediaTek, etc., have issued a conservative message to the outlook for the second half of the year, showing even more that Taiwan’s exports of electronic products seem to have peaked this year.
Second, since Taiwan’s exports to the mainland and Hong Kong account for 45% of total exports, the mainland’s economic growth has the greatest impact on Taiwan. The tightening policy of the mainland this year has affected Taiwan’s exports to the mainland.
In addition, as mentioned above, due to the increase in global demand, in the first half of this year, although many unfavorable factors existed, Taiwan's export trade still performed well, but this is very likely to be a tough end. The original estimated global economic recovery appears to be interrupted, and the chance of a global recession in the second half of the year has greatly increased.
If the economic growth of both Europe and the United States and emerging countries declines, Taiwan’s exports will be hit hard and will further depress Taiwan’s economic growth. At this time, the opening of individual tourist visits to Taiwan by mainland tourists may be able to make up for some of the export growth gaps by increasing domestic demand. Looking at the overall environment, it is not only the introduction and expansion of land passengers. In the future, the tourism industry will play a more important role in promoting Taiwan’s economic growth.
Ruichang Commodity Packaging Co., Ltd. , http://www.nbcosmeticpackaging.com