Wire and Cable Industry Forecast of Copper Demand The wire and cable industry is the main industry for domestic consumption of refined copper. Estimating the demand for copper in the industry in the future is of great significance in judging the growth of copper consumption.
I. Historical usage According to the statistics of the Shanghai Cable Research Institute and the China Electric Industry Association's wire and cable branch, the output of copper conductors in the wire and cable industry was more than 4 million tons in 2009, and copper wire and cable consumption accounted for 60% of domestic copper consumption—80 %. The copper content of various wire and cable products is roughly: 20% - 30% for power cables, 28% - 30% for electrical equipment, 26% - 29% for winding wires, and 5% - 7 for communication cables %, other cables account for 4%-5%. In wire and cable, the output of power cables accounts for the highest proportion.
Second, the future usage estimate Because we can not get the annual specific output of each cable product, this article uses the cable industry in recent years, the growth rate of consumption of copper and aluminum and estimated GDP growth in two ways to estimate the 2015 wire and cable industry The consumption of copper and aluminum, and the total consumption of copper and aluminum in various industries in 2015 was reversed according to the ratio method.
The data for 2010 and before are known data, among which the domestic copper consumption uses the CRU report data, and the copper conductor consumption comes from the statistics of the Shanghai Cable Research Institute and the China Electric Industry Association's wire and cable branch. From the historical data, the consumption of copper conductors in the cable industry has increased steadily, but the growth rate is slowing down. The main reason for this is that with the development of the economy, the demand for cables has increased substantially, and the cable industry has also expanded substantially. However, in recent years, the industry has become saturated and its output growth rate has decreased. The use of copper naturally shows similar trends.
As the progress of urbanization and investment in power grids and other industries have continued, we believe that the total demand for cables will increase steadily. Taking into account the current status of industry saturation and the massive release of actual demand in recent years, we gave the industry a 2% growth rate of low-speed copper and a high-speed expectation of 3.5%. Based on this, we calculated the cable industry in 2015. Copper volumes were 4.82 million tons and 5.26 million tons respectively.
In addition, from the perspective of industry growth, the annual compound annual growth rate during the “10th Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period is not much different from the GDP growth rate at that time. Therefore, we assume that the average annual compound annual growth rate of copper conductors is low. We estimate the future consumption of copper conductors at a value of 7% of the GDP growth target set by the national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and a higher GDP growth rate of 9.5% that we assessed.
At a low compound annual growth rate (7%), the copper conductor consumption in 2015 is estimated at 4.75 million tons, which is close to the assumption of a high-annulus growth rate; at a high compound growth rate (9.5%), the estimate is 671 Ten thousand tons. As there are some differences between the two forecasting methods, we take their average value as the final forecast, that is, the cable industry's copper consumption in 2015 was 5.38 million tons. At the same time, copper used in the cable industry accounts for a large proportion of total refined copper consumption in the country, between 60% and 80%, compared with around 32% in developed countries. We believe that with the adjustment of China's industrial structure and the upgrading of consumption structure, the percentage of cable in total copper consumption will gradually decline, but this ratio will hardly reach the level of developed countries during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. We have assumed a higher expected value of 60% and a lower expected value of 50% based on the changes in the ratio of wire copper used in recent years to push back the total consumption of copper in the future. Through the estimation, the average value of the final calculation will lead to a domestic refined copper consumption of approximately 9.87 million tons in 2015. Starting from 2009, the average annual compound growth rate will be approximately 6.5%.
We estimate the future changes in demand for copper in the cable industry. The advantages of this method of measurement are based on historical data and the outlook for the future. It is relatively simple and intuitive, and the shortcomings are also obvious, that is, despite adopting two methods and adopting High and low rates, but the setting of growth rate is subjective to the author's understanding of the depth of the industry and the impact on future development judgments. More accurate measurement requires more detailed product breakdown within the industry, and different growth rates for different segments of the cable industry.
I. Historical usage According to the statistics of the Shanghai Cable Research Institute and the China Electric Industry Association's wire and cable branch, the output of copper conductors in the wire and cable industry was more than 4 million tons in 2009, and copper wire and cable consumption accounted for 60% of domestic copper consumption—80 %. The copper content of various wire and cable products is roughly: 20% - 30% for power cables, 28% - 30% for electrical equipment, 26% - 29% for winding wires, and 5% - 7 for communication cables %, other cables account for 4%-5%. In wire and cable, the output of power cables accounts for the highest proportion.
Second, the future usage estimate Because we can not get the annual specific output of each cable product, this article uses the cable industry in recent years, the growth rate of consumption of copper and aluminum and estimated GDP growth in two ways to estimate the 2015 wire and cable industry The consumption of copper and aluminum, and the total consumption of copper and aluminum in various industries in 2015 was reversed according to the ratio method.
The data for 2010 and before are known data, among which the domestic copper consumption uses the CRU report data, and the copper conductor consumption comes from the statistics of the Shanghai Cable Research Institute and the China Electric Industry Association's wire and cable branch. From the historical data, the consumption of copper conductors in the cable industry has increased steadily, but the growth rate is slowing down. The main reason for this is that with the development of the economy, the demand for cables has increased substantially, and the cable industry has also expanded substantially. However, in recent years, the industry has become saturated and its output growth rate has decreased. The use of copper naturally shows similar trends.
As the progress of urbanization and investment in power grids and other industries have continued, we believe that the total demand for cables will increase steadily. Taking into account the current status of industry saturation and the massive release of actual demand in recent years, we gave the industry a 2% growth rate of low-speed copper and a high-speed expectation of 3.5%. Based on this, we calculated the cable industry in 2015. Copper volumes were 4.82 million tons and 5.26 million tons respectively.
In addition, from the perspective of industry growth, the annual compound annual growth rate during the “10th Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period is not much different from the GDP growth rate at that time. Therefore, we assume that the average annual compound annual growth rate of copper conductors is low. We estimate the future consumption of copper conductors at a value of 7% of the GDP growth target set by the national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and a higher GDP growth rate of 9.5% that we assessed.
At a low compound annual growth rate (7%), the copper conductor consumption in 2015 is estimated at 4.75 million tons, which is close to the assumption of a high-annulus growth rate; at a high compound growth rate (9.5%), the estimate is 671 Ten thousand tons. As there are some differences between the two forecasting methods, we take their average value as the final forecast, that is, the cable industry's copper consumption in 2015 was 5.38 million tons. At the same time, copper used in the cable industry accounts for a large proportion of total refined copper consumption in the country, between 60% and 80%, compared with around 32% in developed countries. We believe that with the adjustment of China's industrial structure and the upgrading of consumption structure, the percentage of cable in total copper consumption will gradually decline, but this ratio will hardly reach the level of developed countries during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. We have assumed a higher expected value of 60% and a lower expected value of 50% based on the changes in the ratio of wire copper used in recent years to push back the total consumption of copper in the future. Through the estimation, the average value of the final calculation will lead to a domestic refined copper consumption of approximately 9.87 million tons in 2015. Starting from 2009, the average annual compound growth rate will be approximately 6.5%.
We estimate the future changes in demand for copper in the cable industry. The advantages of this method of measurement are based on historical data and the outlook for the future. It is relatively simple and intuitive, and the shortcomings are also obvious, that is, despite adopting two methods and adopting High and low rates, but the setting of growth rate is subjective to the author's understanding of the depth of the industry and the impact on future development judgments. More accurate measurement requires more detailed product breakdown within the industry, and different growth rates for different segments of the cable industry.
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